The Meaning of The China-Russia Entente

A discussion with Armenian-American scholar Pietro Shakarian on Russia, China, and the forthcoming 80th Anniversary of Victory Day.

I recently spoke with Dr. Pietro Shakarian, a historian of Russia and the Soviet Union, and a postdoctoral fellow at the Center for Historical Research at the National Research University-Higher School of Economics in St. Petersburg, Russia.

His forthcoming book, Anastas Mikoyan: An Armenian Reformer in Khrushchev's Kremlin, will be published by Indiana University Press in July.

Carden: I think we should probably begin with the big New York Times investigation into the war in Ukraine—the big takeaway seemed to be that the role the Biden administration played was far larger and more involved than they ever publicly acknowledged. What are your thoughts on what we learned from that report?

Shakarian: I mean, the report itself is a nothing burger. For anybody who has been following the war in Ukraine seriously, it really doesn't tell you anything. On the other hand, what's revealing about the whole thing is that now they're actually talking about it. Now they're discussing it openly. Before they weren't doing that—before they weren’t openly admitting that the US had a direct hand in the war in Ukraine, but it was kind of an open secret, right? What is new is the fact that the Times openly now admits it. That was the most groundbreaking element of this piece.

The other thing that was really striking and really quite distasteful about this article is the way in which it seemed to be an effort, a very elaborate effort through the use of investigative journalism, to blame the Ukrainian people for losing the war—the idea was effectively to say, well, yes, the great guiding hand of Uncle Sam was trying to help these poor Slavs, but they just weren't listening to us and we are more advanced than they are because we are the great Western civilization, and this is the white man's burden replayed, except with the Slavic people of Eastern Europe. They just wouldn't listen. They just couldn't understand..

Carden: Access journalism at its worst. The reporter ran around these different US bases in Germany, and he got the Pentagon and the IC’s side of the story, and they all wanted to portray how heroic their efforts were to prop up the Ukrainians, and if only they had listened, they would've beat the dastardly Russians…

Shakarian: I know. It's atrocious.

Carden: Since you wrote what is, in my view, the definitive piece on the Russian-Iranian agreement, what are your views with regard to Steve Witkoff’s recent meeting with Abbas Araghchi in Oman?

Shakarian: Frankly, I was actually quite surprised. It was a rather positive development because I was thinking he might be more kind of pro-Israel on this issue, but it seems to me, again, that he wants, and I would suppose the President wants, a de-escalation with Iran. And that also reflects something else, that there is this tension within this Trump administration over the NeoCon element and that element that is genuinely America First. And this is a big issue because Israel has never been more pro-war toward Iran. I mean, the current administration in Israel really is, I mean, we're talking about fundamentalist regime in Tel Aviv that really wants to have this ultimate showdown with Iran. But imagine the catastrophe that this would lead us to: Iran is a huge country; a huge country in terms of population, a huge country in terms of area. It's the size of Mongolia. It's not Iraq, it's not Syria. So if you break a country like that, it's going to be immensely costly, and it's going to be a catastrophe for everybody's security.

Is that in America's interest? Look at where the American economy is right now, look at the way in which the economy was structured to benefit the top 1% of the top 1%. In the past few decades, the economy has been rigged against the American working class. People are surprised that there is a crisis today. Well, maybe the crisis is being sped up, but the crisis was already there in the making. And my point is that a war with Iran will not help the American people or American national security at this moment…

Carden: It's safe to say I agree with all that. Let me ask you some Russia-centric questions since you're one of the foremost experts on Moscow’s relations with Iran. It seems Trump and Witkoff do not want a war with Iran…

Shakarian: I agree. Absolutely. I mean, Trump is extremely pro-Israel. He has his ties with Netanyahu, but he does not want a war…

Carden: …So given the recent agreement between Russia and Iran, what would Russia do in the event that Trump gets captured by the neocons and Netanyahu and launches an action against Iran?

Shakarian: We don't really know what they're going to necessarily do. The Russia-Iran agreement, it's important to highlight, again, it's not a defense pact, although it has a strong defense component in the sense that it envisions very, very deep and intensive defense technical cooperation. So it would be very disingenuous to say there's no defensive element to it at all.

Carden: Like any EU association agreement…

Shakarian: Yes, absolutely. And also, we have to also think about it like this, that there is a clause in there that basically specifies that if one of the signatories of this agreement is attacked, then the other party will not support the aggressor, which I mean, that also is kind of a form of indirect support. I mean, you have to think of it like that. It remains to be seen what exactly Russia would do in that scenario—and same with China, by the way. It's not just about Russia. It's also about China.

Carden: Since you bring up China, what's the significance of President Xi coming over to Moscow as the guest of honor for the 80th anniversary of Victory Day [VE Day] in early May?

Shakarian: I mean, it is enormous on two different levels.

Carden: Can you first just back up a second? Talk to people who will be reading this who are not overly familiar with Russian history. Explain the significance in Russia of the upcoming Victory Day celebration, and then talk about the significance of Xi.

Shakarian: So for the uninitiated, basically Russia, as the Soviet Union, won the Second World War. I hate to disabuse you of the notions of the Saving Private Ryan version of events, but that wasn't the history. The history was that the Russians won World War II in Europe and for the Americans the main war was in the Pacific. For Russia, it was the Great Patriotic War. We're talking about a situation where 14% of the Soviet pre-war population died in the war, in particular, the Slavic core of the Soviet Union: Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus. These are the countries that suffered most, although many of the non-Slavic republics also contributed massively to the war. Armenia, I guess you could say, punched above its weight in terms of contributions to the war—but anyway, the war for the Russians is sacred. The memory of the Second World War is sacred. This was a war of survival because Hitler, in addition to killing 6 million Jews in the Holocaust was also very, very hardcore anti-Slav.

He was extremely racist against the Slavs, and, if anybody looks at Mein Kampf, they will see the idea was that Slavs are the "untermenschen (sub-humans)," that the Slavs are the "slaves," that basically Germany "never lost the First World War.”

It was a war of survival for Russia. And so Xi’s invitation is of immense significance, especially now because this is the 80th anniversary. With each anniversary of the great patriotic war, there are fewer and fewer veterans of the war left. So this is enormous. Also, I'm here in St. Petersburg. Back then, this was Leningrad. Think about the blockade of Leningrad, right? Last year, the St. Petersburg government recognized the siege as genocide, and I mean, for the Russians, this was genocide.

And not only against the Russians. Objectively what the Germans were doing to the Slavic people was genocide. It was, like I said, a war of annihilation. So for Russia, it's absolutely sacred, but also for China. China in the Second World War—think about what the Japanese did to the Chinese. Think about how they suffered, think about how they suffered under the Japanese, these memories are still very, very painful and sensitive for China today.

So for Xi to visit, to come to Moscow for this anniversary is immensely significant. And then in addition, you also have the significance of the present moment, which is the rise of the BRICS, the greater association of Russia and China. And this process was sped up with the war in Ukraine—that actually the war in Ukraine really put Russia and China closer together than they've ever been.

Carden: And it seems to have placed or created a terribly large divide that's going to last generations, I think, between Russia and Europe. Talk about Russia’s opinions towards Europe in the aftermath of the current war…

Shakarian: Absolutely. And the Russians see this in the grand trajectory of history. It's not just about the Second World War. It's also about the Crimean War. I mean, going back past 1914, you can look at all the various wars that the Russians fought with various European powers. To Russia it looks like the Europeans are, again, entertaining expansionist designs against Russia or aggressive designs against Russia. What's especially shameful, and the Russians have not missed a beat on this, has been the behavior of Germany— that Germany has become so aggressive and so gung-ho for this enterprise has the Russians stunned.

In fact, the Russians in many ways feel betrayed because it was Russia that consented for Germany to be reunified. We talk about the reunification of Germany and the fall of the Berlin wall. Well, our good friends, the French and the British, were not so thrilled about a united Germany, but the Russians who suffered more than anybody else thanks to German aggression, said, it's OK. We should allow you to come together on the condition that NATO does not move to the East.

When it comes to the German people, I don't think they like where the elites are taking them on this journey. Germany knows what war looks like and what the costs of war are—but I don't believe that the United Kingdom understands this. I think the UK is especially out for war, and I think that they're especially delusional when it comes to Russia.

And I think that that's very dangerous…

Carden: In particular, I think the meeting of the minds between the UK and the Baltic states is one of the more dangerous developments…

Shakarian: Oh, absolutely. Especially when we look at Kaja Kallas [EU Commissioner for Foreign Affairs], she's out of control. What's amazing to me—we look at the wars of religion in Europe, we look at the a hundred years war, we look at World War I, we look at World War ii, and yet it seems as if Europe, just when we think Europe is turning a corner and wanting to move beyond war, we have this new kind of crusader mentality as personified by Kallas. And not only her, Mr. Starmer of the UK seems to be especially gung-ho about a war with Russia. It's almost as if he wants to relive the Charge of the Light Brigade. He wants to go back to the days of the British Empire and the Crimean War...

Carden: I think that's exactly the case. I was just in the UK, and everyone I spoke to said that the main reason the UK acts the way that it does with regard to the Russia-Ukraine war is because the memory of Munich looms so large there. And they all have these Churchillian fantasies…

Shakarian: …But at the end of the day if you want to really help the Ukrainians, you help them find a way to diplomacy, help them find a way to the negotiating table. Don't help them impale themselves in this bloody imperialistic war.